In the coming days, you may receive a message from short code 1590 even if you have muted promotional messages. The El Niño rains it warns about are expected within weeks.
The Communications Authority of Kenya instructed Safaricom, Airtel, Telkom, and Jamii Telecommunications to deliver government-authorized emergency messages to all active subscribers, regardless of Do Not Disturb settings or earlier opt-outs, for the entire El Niño preparedness period.
Depending on the day, a message could be a drill, a general advisory, or an urgent instruction to move.
Rains Arrive From Mid-October
The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is firmly established and expected to grow into a forceful event by the end of 2026, and the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority expects above-average rain across most of the country.
Government spokesperson Charles Owino has put the odds of above-average or very high rainfall at 90%, though forecasters stress that a seasonal outlook does not mean every county will flood.
If you happen to be at risk, have a ready go-bag that can hold water, essential medicines, copies of documents in a waterproof bag, a torch, and a charged power bank.
Afterwards, treat floodwater as contaminated, drink only safe or treated water, throw away food that touched the water, and seek medical care for any injuries or signs of illness.
What the Government is Doing
The ten priority counties are Tana River, Garissa, Kisumu, Busia, Nakuru, Mombasa, Kilifi, Wajir, Mandera, and Turkana.
Caroline Karugu, Acting PS for the State Department for Arid and Semi-Arid Lands, has urged people living in areas prone to floods and landslides to relocate immediately.
“The safety of every citizen is a national security priority,” said Caroline Karugu.
Where the Plan Still Needs Improvement
Kenya enters the rainy season at 54% flood readiness, according to a national assessment that found 18 counties and 5,660 health facilities in at-risk areas.
Money is the first weak point. The 2026/27 budget has no dedicated funding for El Niño response, while US funding for the Red Cross has fallen by about 40%. The KES 51.8 billion World Bank facility will also have to cover Ebola and energy risks as its framework is finalized.
The Auditor General’s review of the 2024 floods found gaps in early warning and evacuation, the same pillars this year’s plan rests on.
In Nairobi, debris cleared from drains was reportedly still piled beside waterways, and counties are moving unevenly, with Murang’a showing major gaps despite its landslide risk.
The government is urging people in flood-prone areas to move, but many households have no relatives on higher ground and no money to rent elsewhere.
Whether they leave will depend on two things: evacuation centers that are open, stocked, and known to residents, and a family plan agreed in advance, including where to go, which route to take, and who will help children and older relatives.
